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BIZCHINA / Voice
Economist: China can evade US subprime debt crisis
By Hao Zhou (chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2007-09-18 16:19
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has had limited impact
on China's economic entity, and China can evade related consequences,
according to two renowned Chinese economists, the Shanghai Securities
News reported today.
Wang Qing, chief economist of Morgan Stanley's Asia-Pacific region,
believes the Chinese economy will not slow even if the US suffers an
economic retreat.
In a public statement yesterday, former US Federal Reserve's Chairman
Alan Greenspan warned of the possibility of a recession in the US economy
amid significant inflationary pressures sparked by snowballing housing
prices.
Wang cited a ratio between government debts and gross domestic product of
18 percent in China, compared with the prevailing 40 to 50 percent in
newly industrialized countries. The figure indicates that China has
enough room for further expansion of financial policies.
Meanwhile, the great bulk of forex reserve will help China to
counterbalance external risks. Soaring investment in fixed assets will
fuel rapid Chinese economic growth at least another 10 to 15 years, Wang
claimed.
Another Chinese economist, Gao Ting, deputy general manager of China
International Capital Corp Ltd's research department, also showed little
concern over the Chinese stock market's liquidity, as long as the bad
subprime debts problem remains confined to the financial field.
Gao said there are some ways to relieve the impact of US' subprime
mortgage crisis.
The US Fed and other nations' central banks will make efforts to prevent
the crisis from spreading, either by injecting money into the markets or
by elevating interest rates.
Additionally, upgrades to China's own export structure will make the
country more flexible in front of a demand shift in the foreign market.
And China is also capable to stimulate the domestic demand via proper
financial measures.
Today, the US Federal Reserve policymaking board plans to meet and
consider a rate cut of an expected quarter of a percentage point, to 5
percent.
Later this week the major US investment banks, including Bear Stearns,
Lehman Brothers, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, are to report their
third-quarter fiscal results. Losses from the bad subprime mortgage loans
will be public.
On Monday, Bear Stearns fell US$1.81 to US$115.38; Lehman fell 88 cents
to US$58.62; Morgan Stanley fell $1.20 to US$64.91; and Goldman fell
US$2.98 to US$187.61.
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